***update*** An hour later: Our numbers got up to around 80. Did see
one traitor rebel flag, in a pick-up with a U.S. flag. What's with
that, anyway? Pick a side, motherfucker. Our side shouted things at
them, variations on go home and leave our public lands alone. They
pretended not to hear, with their hands cupped up next to their ear. "I
can't HEAR you...I can't HEEEAAARRRR you." Gavin Slime engaged in some
public prayer and said a few words. They put a tarpman voodoo doll up
and black voudon clouds lowered overhead. Then a heron flew overhead
and Jesus smiled down and the evil spirits were frozen again inside
their dildo simulacra. Police presence is visible but fairly relaxed.
Word had it some Black Lives Matter got in the protesters' faces but I
only heard tell of such things. Such excitement was too much for me, so
I left in search of snacks.
***transmission over***
Saturday, March 5, 2016
Portland Public Lands Counter-Protest, 3-5-16
Back briefly from the Portland, Oregon, "LaVerle Finnamacher You're Name Will Not Be Forgotten" militiaman protest and snackfest. I counted approx. 200 "patriots" in cowboy hats and carrying the misspelled LaVoy Finnicum meme blown-up to protest signage sign. I didn't see dildos, but I'm sure I saw some Doritos.
Our side had maybe 40 folks. THEY ARE WINNING IN DOWNTOWN PORTLAND, PATRIOTS. But "intel" from around the country indicates that we're winning most other places, with only a dozen or so "Steal Public Lands" protesters at various Fed buildings.
Things seemed peaceable enough. They sent little toads over to our side of the street to get in our face and take pictures, but what the hell, we're taking their pics, too. I didn't see any firearms. Asked a Multnomah County sheriff and she hadn't seen any, either, which works for me. (She's a real sheriff, by the way, so I take her word for it.)
They could out-shout us, but we had louder horns. I'd heard they had Sho Fars but I didn't see them. We had those loud plastic horns you hear at footie matches, the kind that sound like Glenn Beck farting. Our horns were louder, so sho far, sho good.
I saw a lot of US and Gadsden flags, but no rebel traitor flags.
They had been walking in circles around the block at one of our delightful downtown parks when I arrived and were singing one of those patriotic songs when I left, indicating they really do actually love America, I guess, just not its government or institutions or its rule of law.
Now for a quick snack, maybe pick up the items on my hold shelf, and back down there.
#OregonStandoff #TeamIntel #ReportingOut
***update*** An hour later: Our numbers got up to around 80. Did see one traitor rebel flag, in a pick-up with a U.S. flag. What's with that, anyway? Pick a side, motherfucker. Our side shouted things at them, variations on go home and leave our public lands alone. They pretended not to hear, with their hands cupped up next to their ear. "I can't HEAR you...I can't HEEEAAARRRR you." Gavin Slime engaged in some public prayer and said a few words. They put a tarpman voodoo doll up and black voudon clouds lowered overhead. Then a heron flew overhead and Jesus smiled down and the evil spirits were frozen again inside their dildo simulacra. Police presence is visible but fairly relaxed. Word had it some Black Lives Matter got in the protesters' faces but I only heard tell of such things. Such excitement was too much for me, so I left in search of snacks.
***transmission over***
Our side had maybe 40 folks. THEY ARE WINNING IN DOWNTOWN PORTLAND, PATRIOTS. But "intel" from around the country indicates that we're winning most other places, with only a dozen or so "Steal Public Lands" protesters at various Fed buildings.
Things seemed peaceable enough. They sent little toads over to our side of the street to get in our face and take pictures, but what the hell, we're taking their pics, too. I didn't see any firearms. Asked a Multnomah County sheriff and she hadn't seen any, either, which works for me. (She's a real sheriff, by the way, so I take her word for it.)
They could out-shout us, but we had louder horns. I'd heard they had Sho Fars but I didn't see them. We had those loud plastic horns you hear at footie matches, the kind that sound like Glenn Beck farting. Our horns were louder, so sho far, sho good.
I saw a lot of US and Gadsden flags, but no rebel traitor flags.
They had been walking in circles around the block at one of our delightful downtown parks when I arrived and were singing one of those patriotic songs when I left, indicating they really do actually love America, I guess, just not its government or institutions or its rule of law.
Now for a quick snack, maybe pick up the items on my hold shelf, and back down there.
#OregonStandoff #TeamIntel #ReportingOut
***update*** An hour later: Our numbers got up to around 80. Did see one traitor rebel flag, in a pick-up with a U.S. flag. What's with that, anyway? Pick a side, motherfucker. Our side shouted things at them, variations on go home and leave our public lands alone. They pretended not to hear, with their hands cupped up next to their ear. "I can't HEAR you...I can't HEEEAAARRRR you." Gavin Slime engaged in some public prayer and said a few words. They put a tarpman voodoo doll up and black voudon clouds lowered overhead. Then a heron flew overhead and Jesus smiled down and the evil spirits were frozen again inside their dildo simulacra. Police presence is visible but fairly relaxed. Word had it some Black Lives Matter got in the protesters' faces but I only heard tell of such things. Such excitement was too much for me, so I left in search of snacks.
***transmission over***
Sunday, February 7, 2016
Ten Things I Learned from the GOP Debate
1. The GOP can't even walk onto a stage without screwing it up.
(Dr. Ben Carson, calm center of the storm, stands around for a while offstage after his name is called. Logjam ensues.)
2. Marco Rubio needs to find a new line of work. Get out now, that's all one can advise. Otherwise we'll hear about him hunkered in a corner of a padded cell muttering "Barack Obama knows exactly what he's doing" over and over and over. He's a well-groomed young self-starter type and will land on his feet. Opening act at a Tony Robbins seminar seems about right.
3. Donald Trump is really several small children inside a suit made in China. Look at his hands. He has the tiniest hands of any grown man I've ever seen. IT EXPLAINS EVERYTHING. It's why he whines all the time. It's why he can't answer a question. What is your health care plan? "It will be so great!" How will you build your wall? "It will be so huge!" How will you pay for it? "Mexico!" Only the infantile base of the right wing of the GOP could love such a toddler.
4. Jeb Bush can't do much, but he can navigate his way onto a debate stage. I'm sure his mother was very proud.
5. Can anybody track what John Kasich says? Does it turn into white noise after a few seconds for you, too? Has 90 seconds ever lasted so long?
6. If Republicans had a brain in their head they'd get behind Chris Christie immediately and ride that Clydesdale all the way to the finish line. He's the only natural politician up there. He can debate, he can work a rope-line, he has a certain weird charisma. If the other "establishment" candidates bailed out IMMEDIATELY and supported him, he could compete in a three-way with Trump and Cruz (ew), and it would be handed to him at a brokered convention. They won't, and he won't, so it's a moot point. He committed the cardinal sin: He got along with the President JUST ONCE (Hurricane Sandy, the HUG), and said sin cannot be forgiven in the weirdly eschatolgical theology that strangles today's Republican Party.
7. Cruz is a shitbird. Everybody knows it. He can lie about the CNN/Ben Carson-dropping-out thing knowing perfectly well everybody will find out it's a lie and he just doesn't care. He's pathological that way, and his supporters love him for it.
8. It doesn't matter how much money Jeb Bush has in the warchest. Nobody likes him, not the left, not the right, not the center. Who doesn't enjoy seeing him get shushed by the other toddler on the stage? Bring Mom out again, Jeb. Nothing says commander-in-chief more.
9. "Barack Obama knows exactly what he's doing." I kind of already knew that, but it's good to have it confirmed by the Republicans. "Barack Obama knows exactly what he is doing."
10. So why is anybody still voting Republican? Tax breaks? White Nationalism? A mythic sense of the grandeur of this country, rooted not so much in the past as in Hollywood's re-creation of the past? That's it. Or as Hellboy would say:
Murica.
(Dr. Ben Carson, calm center of the storm, stands around for a while offstage after his name is called. Logjam ensues.)
2. Marco Rubio needs to find a new line of work. Get out now, that's all one can advise. Otherwise we'll hear about him hunkered in a corner of a padded cell muttering "Barack Obama knows exactly what he's doing" over and over and over. He's a well-groomed young self-starter type and will land on his feet. Opening act at a Tony Robbins seminar seems about right.
3. Donald Trump is really several small children inside a suit made in China. Look at his hands. He has the tiniest hands of any grown man I've ever seen. IT EXPLAINS EVERYTHING. It's why he whines all the time. It's why he can't answer a question. What is your health care plan? "It will be so great!" How will you build your wall? "It will be so huge!" How will you pay for it? "Mexico!" Only the infantile base of the right wing of the GOP could love such a toddler.
4. Jeb Bush can't do much, but he can navigate his way onto a debate stage. I'm sure his mother was very proud.
5. Can anybody track what John Kasich says? Does it turn into white noise after a few seconds for you, too? Has 90 seconds ever lasted so long?
6. If Republicans had a brain in their head they'd get behind Chris Christie immediately and ride that Clydesdale all the way to the finish line. He's the only natural politician up there. He can debate, he can work a rope-line, he has a certain weird charisma. If the other "establishment" candidates bailed out IMMEDIATELY and supported him, he could compete in a three-way with Trump and Cruz (ew), and it would be handed to him at a brokered convention. They won't, and he won't, so it's a moot point. He committed the cardinal sin: He got along with the President JUST ONCE (Hurricane Sandy, the HUG), and said sin cannot be forgiven in the weirdly eschatolgical theology that strangles today's Republican Party.
7. Cruz is a shitbird. Everybody knows it. He can lie about the CNN/Ben Carson-dropping-out thing knowing perfectly well everybody will find out it's a lie and he just doesn't care. He's pathological that way, and his supporters love him for it.
8. It doesn't matter how much money Jeb Bush has in the warchest. Nobody likes him, not the left, not the right, not the center. Who doesn't enjoy seeing him get shushed by the other toddler on the stage? Bring Mom out again, Jeb. Nothing says commander-in-chief more.
9. "Barack Obama knows exactly what he's doing." I kind of already knew that, but it's good to have it confirmed by the Republicans. "Barack Obama knows exactly what he is doing."
10. So why is anybody still voting Republican? Tax breaks? White Nationalism? A mythic sense of the grandeur of this country, rooted not so much in the past as in Hollywood's re-creation of the past? That's it. Or as Hellboy would say:
Murica.
Friday, February 5, 2016
Fiorina Banned From The Arena
Carly Fiorina won't make the A stage at the next GOP debate, prompting such questions as, Who will she kick around on the B stage now that Rick Santorum is gone? The Gilmore guy? And another question: Why does she keep trying?
Every election she's been involved in has lost. She was an adviser to John McCain's presidential campaign in 2008, which he lost. She ran against Barbara Boxer for U.S. Senator from California in 2010 and lost, even after her campaign outspent Boxer's by a factor of some 48,000-1. Approximately.
Perhaps she's still not accustomed to failure, what with all the massive success in the high-tech sector (printers) she experienced prior to getting fired by HP, the famous high tech (printer) giant.
(One of HP's many high-tech items, features anti-gravity generator upper left, next to "print 2-sided" button.)
Fiorina is justifiably angry about being excluded from the debate.
(Former high tech-industry titan [printers] Carly Fiorina indicating anger at a recent GOP debate.)
ABC's rules for debate participation require landing in the top three in the Iowa vote, or the top six in recent New Hampshire polling, though it is rumored that the A-stage candidates also had to sign an affidavit swearing they would not show up wearing anything stitched from the fur of 101 Dalmatians.
We for one want to see Ms. Fiorina in the debate. The high-tech world of Silicon Valley (printers) is underrepresented in politics. And as annoying as this liberal blogger finds Ms. Fiorina, he must acknowledge that there is something inarguably grown-up about her, as opposed to one of her primary challengers, who recently began campaigning with his mother:
And Ms. Fiorina encapsulates the essence of the Republican Party, from her wholesale firing of employees during her tenure at HP to her incessant lying about Planned Parenthood, even after her comments radicalized a demented wingnut. Or, as Hellboy would say:
Every election she's been involved in has lost. She was an adviser to John McCain's presidential campaign in 2008, which he lost. She ran against Barbara Boxer for U.S. Senator from California in 2010 and lost, even after her campaign outspent Boxer's by a factor of some 48,000-1. Approximately.
Perhaps she's still not accustomed to failure, what with all the massive success in the high-tech sector (printers) she experienced prior to getting fired by HP, the famous high tech (printer) giant.
(One of HP's many high-tech items, features anti-gravity generator upper left, next to "print 2-sided" button.)
Fiorina is justifiably angry about being excluded from the debate.
(Former high tech-industry titan [printers] Carly Fiorina indicating anger at a recent GOP debate.)
ABC's rules for debate participation require landing in the top three in the Iowa vote, or the top six in recent New Hampshire polling, though it is rumored that the A-stage candidates also had to sign an affidavit swearing they would not show up wearing anything stitched from the fur of 101 Dalmatians.
We for one want to see Ms. Fiorina in the debate. The high-tech world of Silicon Valley (printers) is underrepresented in politics. And as annoying as this liberal blogger finds Ms. Fiorina, he must acknowledge that there is something inarguably grown-up about her, as opposed to one of her primary challengers, who recently began campaigning with his mother:
And Ms. Fiorina encapsulates the essence of the Republican Party, from her wholesale firing of employees during her tenure at HP to her incessant lying about Planned Parenthood, even after her comments radicalized a demented wingnut. Or, as Hellboy would say:
Murica!
Wednesday, February 3, 2016
Post-Iowa, Santorum is All Over Everything
Post-Iowa, the lightweights are falling like (insert simile here) and everything smells of Santorum. What the fuck happened to him?
Just four years ago he seemed to be on the cutting edge of GOP insanity, wanting to define life as beginning at the moment of flirtation, but this year he just didn't bring it. Or time has passed him by. Sweater vests don't cut it. The extreme right is moving toward camo. In a Duck Dynasty world, he's Father Flanagan's bent-over altar boy.
Once upon a time he won Iowa. He fought Romney to the end. He was the Working Man's Asshole. Now he's lost that title to a pampered "billionaire." Faretheewell, Santorum. Sniff.
.......................................
Rand Paul will leave us now for four years as well, though we will doubtless hear about auditing the Fed again in 2020.
That's a burning issue for the few people old enough to have been at Jekyll Island. Good-bye, li'l liberty lover, and thanks for all the freedom.
............................
Mike Huckabee...
Him I won't miss. That picture makes you wonder what's in their basement. And the dog. Will the dog be okay? Go play with Ted Nugent some more, huckster. GRIFTER. (Con man.)
And good-bye to Martin O'Malley, one of two Democrats running in the Democratic Primary. His numbers almost rivaled those of Carly Fiorina's, as did the tenor of his "debate-voice." Though every sane American admires his brave stance on the NRA, the sooner the Democratic side of things gets down to Hillary Clinton, the better.
So adieu, adieu, to you and you and you. Someday, soon, I expect to see Fiorina and Jebya! gone, and, the Holy Grail of campaign suspensions, Trump. We live in hope.
Once upon a time he won Iowa. He fought Romney to the end. He was the Working Man's Asshole. Now he's lost that title to a pampered "billionaire." Faretheewell, Santorum. Sniff.
.......................................
Rand Paul will leave us now for four years as well, though we will doubtless hear about auditing the Fed again in 2020.
That's a burning issue for the few people old enough to have been at Jekyll Island. Good-bye, li'l liberty lover, and thanks for all the freedom.
............................
Mike Huckabee...
Him I won't miss. That picture makes you wonder what's in their basement. And the dog. Will the dog be okay? Go play with Ted Nugent some more, huckster. GRIFTER. (Con man.)
And good-bye to Martin O'Malley, one of two Democrats running in the Democratic Primary. His numbers almost rivaled those of Carly Fiorina's, as did the tenor of his "debate-voice." Though every sane American admires his brave stance on the NRA, the sooner the Democratic side of things gets down to Hillary Clinton, the better.
So adieu, adieu, to you and you and you. Someday, soon, I expect to see Fiorina and Jebya! gone, and, the Holy Grail of campaign suspensions, Trump. We live in hope.
Militia: The Gathering
From the new card game Militia: The Gathering! Fun for the whole family! Great for Homeschoolers! This exciting trading-card game will include such memorable characters as General Fatton:
General Fatton is the most powerful militia member, with 1,000 Hit Points. Must be deployed with a Snack Card.
Captain Continental, aka, "The Judge":
The Judge "mediates" conflict between any militia card and any LEO card, resulting in automatic victory for the militia. Requires two Pocket Konstitushoon cards to deploy.
King Cliven
King Cliven, playable as a power-up card with any other militia member card; increases that card's Hit Points by a factor of 2.
Included in the game (not pictured here):
Snack Cards
Pocket Konstitushoon Cards
LEO Cards
Zellot Cards (Zellot cards will remain "forthcoming")
and such exciting characters as:
The Great Santilli
Ghost of McVeigh
Smokin' Woman
Smokin' Hot FBI Guy
Small Fry
Ammo Bundy
"Two-Face" Bundy
Baby Bundy
Tarpman
General Fatton is the most powerful militia member, with 1,000 Hit Points. Must be deployed with a Snack Card.
Captain Continental, aka, "The Judge":
The Judge "mediates" conflict between any militia card and any LEO card, resulting in automatic victory for the militia. Requires two Pocket Konstitushoon cards to deploy.
King Cliven
King Cliven, playable as a power-up card with any other militia member card; increases that card's Hit Points by a factor of 2.
Included in the game (not pictured here):
Snack Cards
Pocket Konstitushoon Cards
LEO Cards
Zellot Cards (Zellot cards will remain "forthcoming")
and such exciting characters as:
The Great Santilli
Ghost of McVeigh
Smokin' Woman
Smokin' Hot FBI Guy
Small Fry
Ammo Bundy
"Two-Face" Bundy
Baby Bundy
Tarpman
Monday, February 1, 2016
Iowa: All Caucused Up
First: Caucus is an ugly word. Primary is so sweet, but caucus sounds like something that should be done in private, not in the group clusterfuck way Iowa chooses to do it, arcane and complex, which should and does benefit the motivated, the committed, the extremist, the zealot.
And speaking of Bernie Sanders: If this is the best he can do, he might as well hang it up. Iowa is as white as it's going to get for him and he can't pull better than a tie with HRC. A tie isn't good enough for the man who's essentially said he's counting on the caucus states and the whiter, whitish, whitesque states to keep him competitive. It will be all over for him after South Carolina, a winner-take-all state that will crush his hopes like a dialectical antithesis. Congratulations, President Clinton, on the first step of your inevitable slog to victory.
Regarding the GOP: Trump is a loser. Trump got schlonged by Ted Cruz's big Canadian schlong. Or smallish, who knows? Do we really know anything about the plucky Canuck? Do we care? He will be perhaps the least likable major party nominee since...Calvin Coolidge? He's footnoteworthy only in that he schlonged Donald Trump.
Marco Rubio seemed quite pleased with his overwhelming/unstoppable 3rd place victory. And of course it was something of a victory. In a sane world the other so-called "normies" in the GOP would drop out and support him, putting the party above the petty, but Jeb Bush is nothing if not petty and he won't be dropping out soon. Rand Paul has the warmth of Freedom to keep the cold sting of defeat from his free Texas skin. Chris Christie is probably just happy for an excuse to be out of New Jersey. Kasich is, apparently, quietly demented. None of them will be inclined to drop out, though the one way to stop the Cruz/Trump derailment of their party necessitates they do so, they drop out immediately, endorse Rubio, and turn their side of 2016 into a three-way race. Who would win such a race? God, who knows. Clinton will beat any of them.
What else did we learn? That polling is absurd, because it had Trump ahead in Iowa most of the way? No, we didn't learn that. Polling isn't absurd, Trump supporters are. They are infantile, clueless White Nationalists who enjoy bellowing about how their Whiteness is not quite as adequately recompensed as in days of yore and then are easily distracted. A set of car keys jangling-in-the-face distracted. Too distracted to go out and vote. Perhaps in non-caucus states a greater percent will make the bother, and Trump still might win the GOP nomination. Or he could be so devastated by Iowa that he throws in the monogrammed towel.
We can happily say good-bye to Martin O'Malley, who absolutely didn't belong in the last debate, or perhaps should have been placed on a B-stage debate by himself, where his pre-planned responses would have not sounded a note different in stridency or beat. Without his presence we will see a more focused contrast between HRC and the non-Democrat running in the Democratic primary. It should be interesting to see if Bernie Sanders has much to say about much of anything beside the billionaire class. Perhaps he will discuss Hillary Clinton's damn emails. Stay tuned.
And speaking of Bernie Sanders: If this is the best he can do, he might as well hang it up. Iowa is as white as it's going to get for him and he can't pull better than a tie with HRC. A tie isn't good enough for the man who's essentially said he's counting on the caucus states and the whiter, whitish, whitesque states to keep him competitive. It will be all over for him after South Carolina, a winner-take-all state that will crush his hopes like a dialectical antithesis. Congratulations, President Clinton, on the first step of your inevitable slog to victory.
Regarding the GOP: Trump is a loser. Trump got schlonged by Ted Cruz's big Canadian schlong. Or smallish, who knows? Do we really know anything about the plucky Canuck? Do we care? He will be perhaps the least likable major party nominee since...Calvin Coolidge? He's footnoteworthy only in that he schlonged Donald Trump.
Marco Rubio seemed quite pleased with his overwhelming/unstoppable 3rd place victory. And of course it was something of a victory. In a sane world the other so-called "normies" in the GOP would drop out and support him, putting the party above the petty, but Jeb Bush is nothing if not petty and he won't be dropping out soon. Rand Paul has the warmth of Freedom to keep the cold sting of defeat from his free Texas skin. Chris Christie is probably just happy for an excuse to be out of New Jersey. Kasich is, apparently, quietly demented. None of them will be inclined to drop out, though the one way to stop the Cruz/Trump derailment of their party necessitates they do so, they drop out immediately, endorse Rubio, and turn their side of 2016 into a three-way race. Who would win such a race? God, who knows. Clinton will beat any of them.
What else did we learn? That polling is absurd, because it had Trump ahead in Iowa most of the way? No, we didn't learn that. Polling isn't absurd, Trump supporters are. They are infantile, clueless White Nationalists who enjoy bellowing about how their Whiteness is not quite as adequately recompensed as in days of yore and then are easily distracted. A set of car keys jangling-in-the-face distracted. Too distracted to go out and vote. Perhaps in non-caucus states a greater percent will make the bother, and Trump still might win the GOP nomination. Or he could be so devastated by Iowa that he throws in the monogrammed towel.
We can happily say good-bye to Martin O'Malley, who absolutely didn't belong in the last debate, or perhaps should have been placed on a B-stage debate by himself, where his pre-planned responses would have not sounded a note different in stridency or beat. Without his presence we will see a more focused contrast between HRC and the non-Democrat running in the Democratic primary. It should be interesting to see if Bernie Sanders has much to say about much of anything beside the billionaire class. Perhaps he will discuss Hillary Clinton's damn emails. Stay tuned.
Monday, January 18, 2016
South Carolina will Decide the Primaries
Iowa and New Hampshire exist this primary year only to weed out the candidates who properly have no business campaigning. On the Democratic side, that is Martin O'Malley. On the Republican side, it is everyone not named Trump or Cruz and, perhaps, a sole surviving "establishment" candidate.
South Carolina will decide the nominee of the Democratic Party, almost certainly, and quite possibly that of the Republican Party.
Iowa and New Hampshire, with their proportional delegate distribution, will keep Bernie Sanders in the race until South Carolina. He and Hillary Clinton will split the delegates in the two states in whatever way the chips happen to fall, 55% of them to Clinton, 45% to Sanders is my guess, but South Carolina's entire 50 delegates, with its winner-take-all distribution, will all go to HRC. She will have a huge lead, and at that point Sanders will, presumably, drop out of the race. The only reasons he wouldn't: desire to keep his "message" out there (kudos to him, yes, and fuck the billionaire class); the conviction he is inspired by whatever god he believes in (probably something to do with dialectical materialism); he's a bored old man who likes the attention -- the Ralph Nader Syndrome (I doubt it).
Things are much more interesting on the Republican side, in a horse-race sort of way, with a dozen or so candidates still in the mix at this point, though "mix" might not apply to the candidates who seem to have fallen out of the mixing bowl. Several of them simply don't belong here, polling very badly, "Martin O'Malley" bad, even: Santorum, Huckabee, Fiorina, Paul. To receive any delegates in Iowa and NH a candidate must get at least 15 percent of the vote. None of those four will. The first three will fold after Iowa, unless they're simply having too much fun with all the fol-de-rol, though Rand Paul might stick around as a "message" candidate -- and of course he won't want to disappoint Dad. Ben Carson will continue to run as long as it generates decent book sales. Frankly, his campaign should more properly be covered by Writer's Digest than by the news and politics journals. His is one of the more outside-the-box book-marketing campaigns I've seen, and will no doubt inspire dozens of future memoirists to run for the highest office in the land. The real race is and will be between Trump and Cruz -- and one and no more than one surviving "establishment" candidate.
As with Clinton and Sanders on the Democratic side, delegates will split neatly between Trump and Cruz, quite possibly all of them, as no other candidate might achieve the 15 percent level to be considered for delegate apportionment. South Carolina, again, will decide the story. If Cruz wins all the delegates there, his lead will be substantial enough that Loser Donald might not want to continue running a Loser Race, the dummy. Sad. If Trump wins, Cruz will probably drop out, if his national polling numbers are still substantially lower than the Donald's.
For an "establishment" GOP candidate to survive after South Carolina, the others had best drop out soon after Iowa. Of the four: Bush, Kasich, Rubio, Christie -- Gov. Christie probably has the best chance of competing against the Trump/Cruz phenomena. Bush is simply unlikable. Unless you're Eric Cantor. Which proves the point. The only thing Left and Right agree on is that Jeb Bush is truly unlikable. John Kasich is simply unlistenable. He is as unlistenable as Bush is unlikable. Has 90 seconds ever lasted so long than when listening to a Kasich response to a debate question? Rubio is a lightweight, to put it mildly. He belongs running the gate at a Tony Robbins seminar. Christie, however, for all his flaws, or perhaps because of them, can be seen as a viable alternative to the "nutty" candidates. He can bluster and bully like Trump. (One imagines his dismay when Trump entered the race just before him, immediately staking out a claim to the "shout out your love for bullying" terrain.) He can be as mean-spirited as Cruz. ("Bridge Lane to Nowhere.") He embraces the blame-the-victim generator that keeps the lights on in the bunker that is the postmodern GOP. (Lock you up if you've ever been anywhere near Ebola.) If he survives after New Hampshire, and if the other "establishment" candidates drop out and endorse him, he could be disruptive enough to keep either Trump or Cruz from a clear majority. At which point Christie would likely be anointed at a brokered convention as the only seemingly normal GOP choice.
Handicapping the races at this point is simple on the Democratic side: Hillary Clinton. On the Republican side, not so much. Trump, if he dominates early on. If he doesn't, then possibly Christie, if enough of the others drop out and endorse him. Cruz does not seem likely. He really is as unliked as all the rumors indicate, and dislike at the highest levels of politics, as always, has a way of bringing you down.
We will know so much more after South Carolina. Perhaps more than we want to know.
South Carolina will decide the nominee of the Democratic Party, almost certainly, and quite possibly that of the Republican Party.
Iowa and New Hampshire, with their proportional delegate distribution, will keep Bernie Sanders in the race until South Carolina. He and Hillary Clinton will split the delegates in the two states in whatever way the chips happen to fall, 55% of them to Clinton, 45% to Sanders is my guess, but South Carolina's entire 50 delegates, with its winner-take-all distribution, will all go to HRC. She will have a huge lead, and at that point Sanders will, presumably, drop out of the race. The only reasons he wouldn't: desire to keep his "message" out there (kudos to him, yes, and fuck the billionaire class); the conviction he is inspired by whatever god he believes in (probably something to do with dialectical materialism); he's a bored old man who likes the attention -- the Ralph Nader Syndrome (I doubt it).
Things are much more interesting on the Republican side, in a horse-race sort of way, with a dozen or so candidates still in the mix at this point, though "mix" might not apply to the candidates who seem to have fallen out of the mixing bowl. Several of them simply don't belong here, polling very badly, "Martin O'Malley" bad, even: Santorum, Huckabee, Fiorina, Paul. To receive any delegates in Iowa and NH a candidate must get at least 15 percent of the vote. None of those four will. The first three will fold after Iowa, unless they're simply having too much fun with all the fol-de-rol, though Rand Paul might stick around as a "message" candidate -- and of course he won't want to disappoint Dad. Ben Carson will continue to run as long as it generates decent book sales. Frankly, his campaign should more properly be covered by Writer's Digest than by the news and politics journals. His is one of the more outside-the-box book-marketing campaigns I've seen, and will no doubt inspire dozens of future memoirists to run for the highest office in the land. The real race is and will be between Trump and Cruz -- and one and no more than one surviving "establishment" candidate.
As with Clinton and Sanders on the Democratic side, delegates will split neatly between Trump and Cruz, quite possibly all of them, as no other candidate might achieve the 15 percent level to be considered for delegate apportionment. South Carolina, again, will decide the story. If Cruz wins all the delegates there, his lead will be substantial enough that Loser Donald might not want to continue running a Loser Race, the dummy. Sad. If Trump wins, Cruz will probably drop out, if his national polling numbers are still substantially lower than the Donald's.
For an "establishment" GOP candidate to survive after South Carolina, the others had best drop out soon after Iowa. Of the four: Bush, Kasich, Rubio, Christie -- Gov. Christie probably has the best chance of competing against the Trump/Cruz phenomena. Bush is simply unlikable. Unless you're Eric Cantor. Which proves the point. The only thing Left and Right agree on is that Jeb Bush is truly unlikable. John Kasich is simply unlistenable. He is as unlistenable as Bush is unlikable. Has 90 seconds ever lasted so long than when listening to a Kasich response to a debate question? Rubio is a lightweight, to put it mildly. He belongs running the gate at a Tony Robbins seminar. Christie, however, for all his flaws, or perhaps because of them, can be seen as a viable alternative to the "nutty" candidates. He can bluster and bully like Trump. (One imagines his dismay when Trump entered the race just before him, immediately staking out a claim to the "shout out your love for bullying" terrain.) He can be as mean-spirited as Cruz. ("Bridge Lane to Nowhere.") He embraces the blame-the-victim generator that keeps the lights on in the bunker that is the postmodern GOP. (Lock you up if you've ever been anywhere near Ebola.) If he survives after New Hampshire, and if the other "establishment" candidates drop out and endorse him, he could be disruptive enough to keep either Trump or Cruz from a clear majority. At which point Christie would likely be anointed at a brokered convention as the only seemingly normal GOP choice.
Handicapping the races at this point is simple on the Democratic side: Hillary Clinton. On the Republican side, not so much. Trump, if he dominates early on. If he doesn't, then possibly Christie, if enough of the others drop out and endorse him. Cruz does not seem likely. He really is as unliked as all the rumors indicate, and dislike at the highest levels of politics, as always, has a way of bringing you down.
We will know so much more after South Carolina. Perhaps more than we want to know.
Tuesday, December 1, 2015
Baals Lied, Bertolt Brecht
Early Brecht poem, my translation:
Baals Lied
Hat ein Weib fette Hüften, tu ich sie ins grüne Gras....
Rock und Hose tu ich lüften, sonnig – denn ich liebe das.
Baals Lied
Hat ein Weib fette Hüften, tu ich sie ins grüne Gras....
Rock und Hose tu ich lüften, sonnig – denn ich liebe das.
Beißt das Weib vor Ekstase, wisch ich ab mit grünem Gras
Mund und Biß und Schoß und Nase: sauber – denn ich liebe das.
Treibt das Weib die schöne Sache feurig, doch im Übermaß
Geb ich ihr die Hand und lache: freundlich, denn ich liebe das.
……….
Baal’s Song
If I had a woman with big fat hips I’d take her on the green grass.
I’d lift her skirt and her shirt in the sun – I’d love that.
I’d bite that woman to ecstasy, wash her clean in the green grass,
her mouth and her teeth, her nose, her lap – I would love that.
I’d set that beautiful woman on fire. I’d lose control, giving her the hand,
then the smile – amiable again. And I’d love that.
Mund und Biß und Schoß und Nase: sauber – denn ich liebe das.
Treibt das Weib die schöne Sache feurig, doch im Übermaß
Geb ich ihr die Hand und lache: freundlich, denn ich liebe das.
……….
Baal’s Song
If I had a woman with big fat hips I’d take her on the green grass.
I’d lift her skirt and her shirt in the sun – I’d love that.
I’d bite that woman to ecstasy, wash her clean in the green grass,
her mouth and her teeth, her nose, her lap – I would love that.
I’d set that beautiful woman on fire. I’d lose control, giving her the hand,
then the smile – amiable again. And I’d love that.
Trump and White Nationalism
A few notes to a friend who thinks Donald Trump's support comes from economic issues:
No. It isn't. Trump's supporters are the spear's edge of the White Nationalist movement in America. They're the hardcore right wing of the right wing party. I don't believe the anger is about economics, but race-based. Every other Trump supporter on Twitter who trolls me has the #WhiteGenocide hashtag in his bio. (Yes, overwhelmingly "his.") The anti-immigrant rhetoric is racism wrapped up in legalities. The anti-"welfare" rhetoric comes from the belief that dark-skinned people are mooching off the system. The gun rights rhetoric comes from the fear that the dark-skinned people will come and hurt them if they aren't armed to the teeth. They've coalesced around hatred of a dark-skinned man in the White House. The economic or alleged constitutional issues that they pretend animate them were not discussed at all when a white Republican was in the White House. Fortunately, I don't think their schtick will play outside the neo-John Birch movement that is the Tea Party and Trump's support won't expand beyond the hardcore White Nationalists who currently propel him.
No. It isn't. Trump's supporters are the spear's edge of the White Nationalist movement in America. They're the hardcore right wing of the right wing party. I don't believe the anger is about economics, but race-based. Every other Trump supporter on Twitter who trolls me has the #WhiteGenocide hashtag in his bio. (Yes, overwhelmingly "his.") The anti-immigrant rhetoric is racism wrapped up in legalities. The anti-"welfare" rhetoric comes from the belief that dark-skinned people are mooching off the system. The gun rights rhetoric comes from the fear that the dark-skinned people will come and hurt them if they aren't armed to the teeth. They've coalesced around hatred of a dark-skinned man in the White House. The economic or alleged constitutional issues that they pretend animate them were not discussed at all when a white Republican was in the White House. Fortunately, I don't think their schtick will play outside the neo-John Birch movement that is the Tea Party and Trump's support won't expand beyond the hardcore White Nationalists who currently propel him.
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